Robin Walker MP has welcomed today’s analysis of the proposed Brexit deal which confirms that the West Midlands is one of the areas with the most to gain from securing a deal that protects our economy and provides stability.
Robin has recently confirmed his intention to vote for the Prime Minister’s deal in a meaningful vote as the deal both delivers on the referendum result and secures the interests of the local economy. This is supported by analysis published today, which shows that the West Midlands economy could see between 7.5% and 9% more growth in a deal scenario based on the Government’s white paper, than in a ‘no deal’ setting.
The same analysis shows that wages could be between 7% and 9% higher with a deal of the sort negotiated by the Prime Minister than on WTO terms, and the overall UK economy could be between 5.4% and 6.9% better off.
Contrary to some of the pre-referendum analysis, the Government’s model published today suggests that the UK economy will grow in every scenario, even a no deal Brexit, but that over a period of around 15 years that growth could be significantly lower with no deal than with the deal that has been negotiated.
The difference between the deal on the table and no deal is the equivalent of around four years of growth at current rates. This is based on long term estimates of the impact of trade barriers, and it does not take into account the potential short term benefits of securing an implementation period. Local businesses have been clear that they see these provisions as significant.
Robin spent yesterday speaking to a wide range of business groups from the Tourism Industry Council to the Chemical Industries Association, from Universities UK to Oil and Gas UK and Energy UK; groups that between them represent hundreds of employers up and down the country, including many in Worcester.
Each of the groups expressed support for the Prime Minister’s deal, and hoped that Parliament would support it in the interest of the job market, investment opportunities and economic stability.
Robin also took time out from his Ministerial duties this week to meet with and speak to local small business owner, Linda Case, who was attending a parliamentary event ahead of small business Saturday. This coming Saturday Robin will be joining Worcester BID on a tour of local small businesses for the annual event that celebrates the invaluable contribution of small businesses.
Speaking about the analysis today, Robin said
“I know that the process of exiting the European Union is about more than just economics, numbers and forecasts, but as a local MP I do take seriously the impact of any political decision on jobs and growth.”
“The detailed analysis published today confirms that our country will be significantly better off with the deal that the Government has now agreed with the EU, rather than rejecting that deal and leaving on WTO terms. It shows that our local economy in the West Midlands is one of the most profoundly affected in the country, and that wages will be higher if this deal is secured.”
“Combining the findings of this analysis with the consistent feedback I receive from local businesses stating that they want to see a negotiated deal that offers the short term stability of a transition or implementation period, I am more determined than ever to see this deal through and do the best for Worcester.”
“Having spent a huge amount of time over the last couple of years talking to businesses large and small, I have heard from hundreds of employers and employees up and down the country including many in Worcester the concerns they have about changes in the trading relationship with our neighbours in Europe. Several have emphasised the massive potential for new opportunities of global trade, and I believe that it is essential that we take these.”
“I understand that businesses largely respect the outcome of the referendum, but they are clear that they require concrete answers as to how we will trade, and how we will avoid tariffs and regulatory barriers with Europe as well as delays at the border. The deal we have reached, which will be put before Parliament in a couple of weeks, provides those answers both in the short term through the implementation period which awards businesses a period of stability in which to prepare for change, and in the long term through an ambitious future partnership and a trade deal better than any in existence between the EU and a third country. Crucially for small businesses, the deal provides security in the knowledge that no changes will occur overnight and that there is a better outcome for consumers on the table.”
“There are some people, I do not doubt, who will decry these figures and talk about project fear. I believe they would be wrong to do so. This analysis is significantly more balanced than the pre-referendum analysis that was published during that campaign. It shows that the UK economy can and will grow in every scenario and it shows that there are benefits to international trade beyond the EU. It deliberately does not make assumptions regarding the short term disruption, which could be a possibility in a no deal scenario, but focuses on the long term outcome.”
“I am confident that our strong economy will continue to deliver for the British people in all scenarios, but I want the strongest possible economy for the jobs and livelihoods of the people I represent and that is why I support this deal.”
Notes to editors
For the full publication of ‘EU Exit: Long term economic analysis’ please see:
For Robin’s recent statement on the Withdrawal Agreement, please see:
For the full publication of ‘EU Exit: Taking back control of our borders, money, and laws while protecting our economy, security and Union’ please see: